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Donald Trump’s arrest isn’t going to help him politically. Here’s why it’ll likely do the opposite.

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Various major media outlets are acting like it’s a given that Donald Trump’s arrest today will help him politically. Can’t stress enough that there is no basis for this. Polling does not show this at all. Logic says it’ll hurt him with Republican primary voters outside his base, who will start to worry about his availability.

But the (entire) media has spent eight years hyping and constantly reinforcing the ratings-driven false narrative that Trump’s base comprises the entire Republican voting base. So now it can build on that falsehood by insisting Trump’s base can just unilaterally hand him the nomination.

The fact that Trump is only polling at about 55% in the 2024 Republican primary race, and has only ever been polling as high as 55%, should make clear that his base and the Republican primary voting base are two entirely different things. Otherwise he’d be polling at 90% or 100%.

Further, it’s obvious that only some of those 55% are his base, and some of those 55% are only supporting him because they think he gives their party the best chance of winning. Once the latter group starts to question that, his numbers will drop. The only question is by how much or how little.


Meanwhile the media is insisting Trump is “surging” in the polls – even as it cites polls that show him at the same 55% as ever. They can’t even find one outlier poll that shows him supposedly surging. So they have to just lie and hope you don’t notice his numbers haven’t moved.

Of course the media could just honestly admit that Trump’s legal troubles helping his numbers in the short term, and explain how they’re likely to hurt Trump as they drag on. But then you’ll stop fretting over some magic Trump comeback, and you’ll go watch The Price Is Right.

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