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Donald Trump’s “2024 Republican frontrunner” status is becoming more precarious by the day

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Each time someone on television refers to Donald Trump as the “2024 Republican frontrunner” I’m tempted to remind them that at this point in the 2016 presidential election cycle, the “Republican frontrunner” was Scott Walker. At the start of April 2015, Walker was in first place in 2016 Republican primary polling. Within six months his poll numbers dropped to zero and he quit the race.

This far in advance, the word “frontrunner” is misleading and completely irrelevant terminology. Those same folks on TV will argue that it’s different this time around because “Trump’s base will never abandon him no matter what!” But that simplistic little oft-repeated slogan conveniently ignores the fact that Trump is only at 55% in Republican primary polling to begin with. Trump barely has half the Republican primary voting base as it is.

Earlier this month Trump came within a few points of losing his “Republican frontrunner” status to Ron DeSantis – and was only saved by the fact that DeSantis is a historically weak and self-destructive candidate who couldn’t even survive his own national rollout without collapsing in heap of failure.

What happens when the next newcomer or outsider enters the Republican fray, gets some momentum, and doesn’t self destruct, even as Trump starts to become known as the guy who was too weak to keep himself from ending up in handcuffs? Remember, right wingers love strongmen, and hate anyone they perceive as weak.

And as Trump appears in one criminal court proceeding after another, and faces one indictment after another, how many within his 55% will start wondering if he’ll even be available for the general election? How many will jump ship to whichever trendy fresh faced Republican candidate comes along next?


You can’t predict who will come along with that kind of momentum, or when. But Trump is incredibly vulnerable. It’s entirely possible that he could be out of primary contention before his first conviction even lands. He could be politically washed up long before he’s carted away.

So while it’s technically true that Donald Trump is currently the “2024 Republican frontrunner” by virtue of still being in first place in laughably early polling, it’s disingenuous for anyone to use the word “frontrunner.” It’s ridiculous that certain news outlets are using that word to describe Trump every five minutes.

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